North Texas takes on Troy in Sun Belt title tilt

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/09/2010 - Hot Springs, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The top-seeded Troy Trojans and the second- seeded North Texas Mean Green have advanced to the championship game of the 2010 Sun Belt Conference Tournament, and they will compete for an automatic bid to the "Big Dance" this evening.

North Texas squeaked by 10th-seeded UL-Monroe in the quarterfinal round by three points, and the Mean Green defeated Denver in the semifinals on Monday by a 63-56 final. That victory was the 10th in a row for the squad, which has improved to 23-8 overall. North Texas won its lone Sun Belt Conference championship in 2007.

As for Troy, it is riding a seven-game win streak that has enabled it to move to 20-11 overall, including 4-0 in neutral-site affairs. After a 12-point win over South Alabama in the quarterfinals, the Trojans managed to defeat Western Kentucky last night, 54-48. They are relative newcomers to the conference and failed to win the title in their previous four Sun Belt Tournament appearances.

The Mean Green beat the Trojans in a 75-72 final on the road in the only regular-season meeting between the two teams, and UNT owns a 5-2 advantage in the all-time series.

There are four double-digit scorers on the North Texas roster, and the team is averaging 74.5 ppg while permitting 69.6 ppg to opponents. Josh White leads the Mean Green with 15.0 ppg on 40.4 percent shooting from three-point range, and he has dished out 111 assists. Tristan Thompson provides 14.2 ppg on 41 percent accuracy from behind the arc, and Eric Tramiel checks in with 12.7 ppg. Rounding out the foursome is George Odufuwa with 11.5 ppg and 10.5 rpg, and he is a 61.4 percent shooter from the field. In last night's win over Denver, North Texas earned a 20-8 edge in points from the foul line and a 36-27 advantage on the boards. The Mean Green played tremendous defense, limiting the Pioneers to 38.9 percent shooting from the field.

Troy is generating 75.5 ppg this season while allowing 71.9 ppg to opponents. Brandon Hazzard leads the Trojans with 16.6 ppg, and Richard Delk provides 12.5 ppg. Michael Vogler brings 11.8 ppg to the mix, and Yamene Coleman rounds out the foursome of double-digit scorers with 10.1 ppg and 7.9 rpg. Vogler has dished out 170 assists to go along with 57 steals, and all four players mentioned have started every game this season. The same goes for Antywan Jones (8.8 ppg), and it is rare to see a team make it this far into the season with the exact same starting unit. Against Western Kentucky yesterday, Hazzard scored 17 points to lead a shaky offensive effort in which Troy shot just 37.5 percent from the floor. Fortunately, the Trojans were able to limit the Hilltoppers to 35.7 percent shooting.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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