Hornets aim to stop skid vs. Warriors

Basketball Betting Lines

03/08/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Orleans Hornets are in danger of recording their longest losing streak in three years. Fortunately for the struggling club, it'll be facing one of the NBA's poorest road teams when the Golden State Warriors enter the Big Easy tonight for a Western Conference matchup.

New Orleans has dropped its last four games and five of the past six contests to fall to 11th place in the West, five games back of Portland for the conference's eighth and final playoff seed. Since All-Star point guard Chris Paul suffered a knee injury in late January, the Hornets have gone a subpar 6-11.

The Hornets' latest mishap occurred Friday in San Antonio, where seven Spurs players scored in double figures in a 102-91 victory over their Southwest Division rivals.

New Orleans was within striking distance after three quarters of play, trailing by a 74-69 score, but Manu Ginobili's three-pointer two minutes into the fourth ignited a 13-5 run that enabled the Spurs to pull away.

"We competed and played extremely hard," said Hornets head coach Jeff Bower. "I thought we played well for a lot of the game. I don't think we had enough plays to come out on the plus side on the road."

Darren Collison poured in 32 points for the Hornets in a losing cause, with David West compiling 22 points, nine rebounds and seven assists on the night. Marcus Thornton scored 18 points before leaving the game in the fourth quarter with an upper back strain, although the rookie is expected to play tonight.

New Orleans, which hasn't lost five in a row since a six-game slide from March 2-13, 2007, will play six of its next seven on the road following tonight's tilt.

Golden State has also been without its best player for some time, with high- scoring guard Monta Ellis slated to sit out a sixth straight game this evening due to a sore back. Even with Ellis available, the Warriors haven't had much success in enemy buildings this season, having lost 27 of their 31 outings as the visitor for the campaign.

The Warriors have been dealt defeats in each of the first four tests of a road trip that concludes tonight, including Saturday's 101-90 setback at Charlotte. Golden State trailed just 86-85 midway through the fourth quarter, before the Bobcats put together a 15-2 spurt to kill any comeback hopes.

"We hung around for a long time. They finally figured out a way to hurt us with the zone (defense)," Warriors head coach Don Nelson said. "We kept waiting -- and we got away with it for a long, long time -- and they finally got it in the middle of our zone and that was pretty much the end of it."

Stephen Curry led Golden State, which shot just 38.2 percent from the field, with 25 points, with Corey Maggette finishing with 19 points in the loss.

The Warriors also played Saturday's game without starting center Andris Biedrins (groin), while replacement Ronny Turiaf left in the first quarter after straining his left knee. Neither player is expected to be in uniform tonight.

New Orleans has won both previous meetings between the teams in 2009-10, including a 108-102 decision at home on December 23.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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