Dodgers shoot for another win in key set with Padres

Baseball Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Excellent pitching and timely hitting made the Los Angeles Dodgers look like the first-place team last night versus the San Diego Padres.

Los Angeles goes for its first four-game winning streak in almost two months tonight, when it tries to inch closer to National League West-leading San Diego in the second contest of a three-game set at Petco Park.

The Dodgers came into last night's game with the Padres six games back in the race for the division crown, but shaved one off that deficit with a 2-0 victory.

Chad Billingsley allowed just three hits and two walks over six innings, but was replaced by a pinch-hitting Andre Ethier during the seventh because it was a scoreless game. The move paid off for Los Angeles manager Joe Torre, as Ethier hit a two-run single with the bases loaded and two outs despite not starting the game due to illness.

That hit made Billingsley a winner, and Hong-Chih Kuo followed with two scoreless innings of relief before Jonathan Broxton recorded his 20th save of the season.

"I didn't want [Billingsley] starting the game and coming out in the fifth inning," Torre said. "That couldn't have been more of a perfect spot, when they had to pitch to him."

Ethier's hit scored both Blake DeWitt and Garret Anderson for the Dodgers, who have won five of six and aim for their first four-game winning streak since June 6-9.

Jon Garland took the loss after giving up two runs over 6 2/3 innings. Yorvit Torrealba had a pair of hits for the Padres, who failed to score in the fourth inning despite loading the bases with nobody out.

"Obviously we'd like to push runs across every night, but sometimes it doesn't go your way," Padres second baseman Jerry Hairston Jr. said. "We just have to come back and be ready to play [Wednesday] night."

The Padres had a three-game winning streak end while the second-place San Francisco Giants pulled within 2 1/2 games of the division's top spot.

San Diego will look to rebound tonight behind Clayton Richard, who had won three consecutive decisions prior to a setback to the Braves on Thursday. The 26-year-old lefty allowed four runs, all but one earned, on nine hits and two walks over six innings, falling to 7-5 with a 3.57 earned run average on the season.

Richard has made two starts in his career versus the Dodgers, going 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA.

Hiroki Kuroda counters for the Dodgers after halting a three-start losing streak on Thursday. Facing the Mets, the 35-year-old Japanese import yielded five hits and a walk over eight scoreless innings to improve to 8-8 with a 3.48 ERA this year. However, Kuroda does have a 7.13 ERA over his last four outings.

The right-hander is 4-2 with a 4.91 ERA in his career versus the Padres.

Los Angeles has won five of six over the Padres this year, including a three- game sweep at Petco Park from May 14-16.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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